Scientists carried out an interesting study in the field of betting, which proved that the efficiency of a player’s bet increases if he has previously made a successful bet. If you are superficially familiar with probability theory, you have probably already heard the expression that a flipped coin does not remember the last result, so the probability of heads or tails is the same. This law only partially works in betting.
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It’s a matter of common notoriety that in basketball, the chances of making a free throw are greater if the previous shot was successful. If a player misses on his first attempt, his chances of making a second free throw are lower.
As practice shows, beginners in sports betting can be by no means inferior to professionals in the field of casino betting in determining the exact outcome of a match. Because of the high-ranking ego of experienced players, they believe that because they know more nuances of the game, they have a much better chance of guessing the correct outcome. However, in reality, typical half-baked players show exactly the same performance as pseudo-geniuses.
Breaking down a theory
For the study, scientists relied on more than half a million bets placed by several hundred bettors. As it turned out, the probability of winning a random bet was 48%, but if a winning bet had been made before, the probability increased to 49%. In the case of a previous losing bet, the probability went down to 47%.
After two wins in a row the probability of winning the next bet increased to 57%, after three to 67%, after four to 72%, and after five to 75%. At the same time, after two, three, four, and five losses in a row, the probability of winning the next bet fell to 40%, 32%, 27%, and 25%.
The probability of winning also increases with a longer winning streak. With a long losing streak the probability of winning decreases, but not with such a difference as in the previous case.
The phenomenon of this effect lies in the fact that sports events are not related to each other in any way and in theory the result of the previous bet should not affect the probability of passing the subsequent bet. Nevertheless, such an outcome is scientifically proven and it has an explanation.
As it turned out, after each subsequent win the average betting odds usually fall for bettors, due to which they become less risky. Naturally, the probability of such bets passing increases. The same players who suffer a succession of failures, with each subsequent bet usually increase the odds, in the hope of recovering the lost money.
Also, scientists have noticed another interesting feature. Those players who had long winning streaks of bets were in general slightly less successful over the distance than players who did not have a long winning streak of bets.
You don’t have to worry about a series of unsuccessful bets if you use a solid gambling strategy. Sooner or later the series will stop, and the distance will surely return your lost money. At the same time, don’t have too much faith in yourself when you have a long winning series of bets, because after a significant period in the game you may find yourself in a deficit.
Day in and day out, a huge number of bets are placed on sporting events. Some are considered and analyzed to the smallest detail, others are just guesswork. What is the chance that the first ones are more correct than the others? Probably a good one, if professionals can make a lot of arguments about the event.
Of course, logical considerations must prevail in the choice of betting on the match, but in such cases, the players in the first place are not statistics and probability of the event and a little bit of luck. That’s why it would be much more reasonable for a beginner to devote the time he spent searching for the lucky charm, to studying strategies and betting systems.
Is it righteous to rely on a successful raft of bets?
No, it might be a betting trap. Stay away from this type of situation as this might lead to a lot of entanglements in the long run.
Is it contagious to resume betting after a handful of successful bets earlier?
Yes, it can’t be contagious, bettors can’t control this situation, so they will continue to make risky bets notwithstanding common sense. It might lead all your bank to drown down the drain.